JULY 19th, 2008
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Winds of change
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Tillman Thomas is Grenada's - and the Caribbean's - newest Prime Minister.

The unseating of the incumbent party in Grenada is the latest in a string of similar defeats for governing parties in national elections right across the Caribbean.

Some political commentators have described this development as a political wind of change that's sweeping the region. But what's fuelling this and what does it mean for the politics in the Caribbean?
The so-called winds of change have been felt in almost all corners of the region where some seven incumbent parties have been tossed out of government within the last 18 months.

Opposition parties have won elections in Jamaica, Barbados, Belize, Bahamas, St. Lucia, British Virgin Islands, and now in Grenada. The only exceptions to this trend were Trinidad and Tobago and Bermuda where governing parties staved off challenges from the opposition. August 2006 elections in Guyana also saw the Bharrat Jagdeo government holding on to power.

According to the Politics Professor of the University of the West Indies, Dr Rupert Lewis, there are several factors behind the changing political environment in the region. One of them, he says, is the declining role and influence of hard-line loyal party support.

"There is a new generation of voters around, a younger generation which is not as tied in to loyalty as previous generations were," he told BBC Caribbean."Moreover we live in a very dynamic environment, particularly on the world economy. The price of oil, the price of food, those things have sky-rocketed and makes this difficult for governments to respond to the needs of the electorate in the ways that they did in the past."Also there are problems of managing crime.

According to the UWI professor, "Something else that a few of the fallen parties have in common is that they were going for record terms in office. This was the case in Barbados, Jamaica and Grenada." Professor Lewis feels this suggests that the Caribbean electorate aren't prepared to see one party in power for too long.

The Opposition leader in St. Kitts-Nevis, Lindsay Grant of the Peoples Action Movement, agrees and is hoping that this change in political attitudes works in his favour. His party has one seat in the parliament to the governments seven.

"It leaves only the leadership of Denzil Douglas to be dislodged from the government."He is now seeking a fourth consecutive term and we are saying that those have shown that the Caribbean people are weary of giving those lengthy years to the governments in the region."

Dominica's Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit, is downplaying what analysts call the 'winds of change' phenomenon. He says opposition parties should be careful how much faith they place in this place in this trend.

"The circumstances in these countries vary ... I don¹t subscribe to the view that there is a wind of change in the Caribbean at all," he stated. But Claude Douglas, lecturer in political science at St. George's University in Grenada says there does appear to be a dramatic shift in the political process in the region. He says political parties would do well to realise this.

"A lesson in this is that politicians (and political parties) in the Caribbean need to take the electorate a little bit more seriously."(They) need to respect them a little more because people are focused on the issues at hand; people are informed about what is going on, " he said.

And for the parties which have come off the opposition benches and are occupying the seats of power there was a warning that they too could very well be swept from power if they don't deliver on their promises.

And one of those in government which could soon be facing the electorate for its first term report card is Baldwin Spencer's United Progressive Party in Antigua and Barbuda. Arguably they could be seen as being at the forefront of this 'wind of change' when they swept the Antigua Labour Party from office in March 2004.

Elections in Antigua and Barbuda are due by next year.

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